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June 23, 2006

The last few days ...

1) Why do I bother with freerolls? Full Tilt Poker was doing a freeroll satellite to a Red Rock tournament and I figured I might as well - it's free, right? I started off well - I picked up 5-6s on the first hand and folded it when three people went all-in. The flop was 7-8-9 rainbow and I almost cried. Running the Pokerstove sim later, I realized I was actually the pre-flop favorite because of the multi-way pot - I was 32% to win or something silly like that. After the flop, I was about 99%. The second hand took some of the sting out when I caught pocket queens. I made a sensible bet which was automatically re-raised by three people to all-in. One of them had 9-7s - that, honestly, was the only hand that worried me. The other two players were both holding A-K, dramatically reducing the odds that they'd catch a pair. By the river, I was holding a full house. Things went to hell when I caught pocket aces UTG and bet 3.5x. In a freeroll, that's like saying you want to play badminton. I had one caller in UTG+1 and then UTG+2 announced they were tired and went all-in. No callers, I raised all-in and UTG+1 folded. UTG+2 showed 7-6o. So far, so good, and so it was until the river when they were holding a full house and I was holding a portion of my anatomy. Phil Gordon was once asked about the circumstances under which he would fold pocket aces and he said never. I would like to respectfully ask Phil whether he considered freerolls and low buy-in tourneys before he answered. Honestly, we all know I would have called anyway. I had aces! Whatever he had could NOT be better than aces before the flop. Luckily, I had him covered. Next hand, I caught Q-9h and two all-ins in front of me, one of them the person who caught the boat. By this point, I'm thinking that it's a queen and a 9, they're soooted and that's probably good enough to crack whatever else anyone is holding and I was right - the boater had off-suit gapped junk like 8-2 or something. The other caller had pocket 3s. Naturally, the only thing helpful to hit the board was a 3 at the river to add insult to injury. With $70 left, I pushed all-in with off-suit gapped crap which included a 9 - and that will become important later - because the blinds were $50 and it seems like any idiot can rub any two cards together to make fire. Naturally, I rivered a 9-high four-flush to win the main pot and prove my point. Back up to $375 and with blinds still at $50, I pushed in again to end my misery. Thankfully, the board brought tons of useful cards, all of which were higher than my 8-7o and none of which could be used with any runner-runner combination to help me win. I finished in 32nd place. Like I said before I wished everyone luck - playing in the first 10 minutes of a freeroll and placing 32nd ... isn't that like winning the main event?

2) Cash games. Heavens. I could move up in limit to the $.50/$1 tables, but I'm not sure the level of play would be any better there. A normal 3-4x blind bet is simply insufficient to indicate strength at the $.05/$.10 tables which is what I normally play. Here's a perfect example which just happened to run in my favor tonight:

Table Sparkling (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:14:07 ET - 2006/06/23
Seat 1: Holliday_PHD ($10.75)
Seat 3: Gabri29 ($10)
Seat 4: just_got_felted ($15.60)
Seat 5: puckett101 ($3.70)
Seat 6: potliqour666 ($1.50)
puckett101 posts the small blind of $0.05
potliqour666 posts the big blind of $0.10
Gabri29 posts $0.10
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to puckett101 [9s 8h]
Holliday_PHD raises to $0.20
Gabri29 calls $0.10
just_got_felted folds
puckett101 calls $0.15
potliqour666 calls $0.10
*** FLOP *** [9c 8s Js]
puckett101 bets $0.30
potliqour666 raises to $1.30, and is all in
Holliday_PHD calls $1.30
Gabri29 folds
puckett101 raises to $3.50, and is all in
Holliday_PHD calls $2.20
puckett101 shows [9s 8h]
potliqour666 shows [Ac 7s]
Holliday_PHD shows [Tc Kd]
*** TURN *** [9c 8s Js] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [9c 8s Js 9h] [5d]
puckett101 shows a full house, Nines full of Eights
Holliday_PHD shows a pair of Nines
puckett101 wins the side pot ($3.95) with a full house, Nines full of Eights
potliqour666 shows a pair of Nines
puckett101 wins the main pot ($4.25) with a full house, Nines full of Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $9.10 Main pot $4.70. Side pot $4.40. | Rake $0.90
Board: [9c 8s Js 9h 5d]
Seat 1: Holliday_PHD showed [Tc Kd] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 3: Gabri29 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: just_got_felted (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: puckett101 (small blind) showed [9s 8h] and won ($8.20) with a full house, Nines full of Eights
Seat 6: potliqour666 (big blind) showed [Ac 7s] and lost with a pair of Nines

So let's review - Holliday, someone who showed himself to be a solid player later, raises 2x the blind with K-10o. That isn't a big enough bet to make me lay down 8-9o. Potliqour (spelling correct) calls with A-7o. The flop hits me like its name is Ike Turner and I bet 3x with two pair flopped. Dudebro raises all-in with NOTHING. Holliday called with an open-ended straight draw. At the time, I was concerned that he was holding one or both of the two cards that scared me - a queen and a 10. I was right on the first part, but he was waiting for a queen or 7 to make his straight. That was a very reasonable play on his part considering his stack size, dudebro's stack size and dudebro's loose play to that point (which had already cost me a stack because he was calling 10-12x bets with K-6c and bottom pair). Since he called and didn't raise into me, I pushed all-in. If he was on a draw, I wanted him to pay for it and I liked my chances with two pair. He though about it for a while and called. The turn brought another 9 and they were both drawing dead. Life was good, I did a mental Ewok victory dance and left the table not long after that. I took down a few more pots by betting 8-10x the blind as a standard bet to push marginal hands out - I left the table with something on the order of $.90 than I had when I sat down.

My conclusion? Screw ring games. They suck.

3) Thoughts on being the short-stack and pot commitment. Maybe it's just that I'm a guy, but in poker, I don't like being told I'm committed to anything. In a $5+.50 SNG last night, I was down to WAY less than two orbits. Blinds were $600/$1200 and I had around $2500. Instead of pushing in with any two, I waited for a pocket pair. In the meantime, mid-stacks were pushing in with marginal aces and drawing hands and getting knocked out. As Sklansky pointed out, sometimes it's better not to mix it up, no matter how badly short-stacked you are - you can move up in the pay ladder that way. Finally I caught a pocket pair and pushed in - when it held, I doubled up. I did that again and fought my way back to finish 3rd for a nice little payout that more than erased my losses from cash games for the day. In fact, I was up a few bucks. Let's hear it for me! At any rate, this whole concept of pot commitment is math ... I never have liked math, so let me offer this idea - let's say you're on a date and the restaurant was just horrible. After you've barely touched your food because it tastes so bad, the waiter comes up to you and tells you that the meal was going to cost half the money in your wallet and offers you an unknown dessert which will cost the rest of the money in your wallet. Would you believe you were meal committed and risk going broke for a rancid slice of apple pie, or would you hold onto the money and maybe take your date to a movie afterward to make up for the ghastly food? If you're being asked to call half your stack and don't have much in the way of hole cards or haven't hit anything, it may make sense in Sklansky's model to fold and pray that the next hand hits you or another opponent (if you're short-handed) and helps you move up the pay ladder. Just sayin'.

4) Pot odds. I've exchanged a few emails about this subject, particularly making it unprofitable for someone to call, lately and this hand came up:

$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (4845020), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:30:27 ET - 2006/06/22
Seat 1: lonniej (1,330)
Seat 2: Em_Em420 (970)
Seat 3: FC Levski (2,885)
Seat 4: puckett101 (1,765)
Seat 5: bigchefdan (1,645)
Seat 6: spoony503 (1,410), is sitting out
Seat 7: Major magoo (1,320)
Seat 8: DMercado (5,035)
Seat 9: puntertm (1,365)
FC Levski posts the small blind of 20
puckett101 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to puckett101 [Td Th]
bigchefdan raises to 189
spoony503 folds
Major magoo raises to 338
DMercado folds
puntertm folds
lonniej folds
Em_Em420 folds
FC Levski folds
puckett101 raises to 1,765, and is all in
bigchefdan has 15 seconds left to act
bigchefdan folds
Major magoo folds
Uncalled bet of 1,427 returned to puckett101
puckett101 mucks
puckett101 wins the pot (885)
The blinds are now 25/50
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 885 | Rake 0
Seat 4: puckett101 (big blind) collected (885), mucked
Seat 5: bigchefdan folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Major magoo folded before the Flop

So let's think about what happened here. First of all, I was lucky enough to have a hand in the big blind, but what's REALLY going on? I don't claim to understand pot odds well and I'm working on that aspect of my game, but after some recent email discussions, I have been able to identify what people when they're trying to make it unprofitable to call and one tactic is making bets that are not standard multipliers. If it's 1.6 to 1, maybe they won't call! If it's 3.2 to 2.9, maybe I'll take the pot down! Sure. Maybe that's so. And maybe if you're playing like that, I'll do this again and take your bets that smell like bluffs and pot odds gerrymandering. These bets flat out stank - they reeked of trickery, indignity and odious behavior. They carried the aroma of theft. Pushing all-in forces a decision and, as Phil Gordon points out in the Little Green Book, poker is about making correct decisions. There are no more games at that point, considering I had both of them covered, even if it wasn't by much. Their decision was call or fold. There would be no more attempts to adjust pot odds in their favor. They both folded and I took down a nice pot without ever seeing a flop. The lesson here? If someone has guts, adjusting the amount of money in the pot to make pot odds more favorable to you won't help. If you have a significantly smaller stack than the other person, they're still likely to call. Poker is situational.

The other problem with this is that it told a confusing story - if the first raise had been, say, $140 (remember, $20/$40 blinds), I might have just flat called to see a flop, but the first raise wasn't 3.5x, it was something like 4.6x the big blind. The second raise didn't correct it - it may well have just been hitting the min raise button (which part of me doubts since that would have at least made the last digit a 9), but it was something on the order of 8.46x or some nonsense (I'm estimating multipliers here - if I'm wrong, I don't much care), not 3x the previous raise to indicate a significantly stronger hand - remember the Gap Concept here ... you have to have a better hand to call with than to raise with and if you're re-raising, that hand has to be a monster. These bets looked and smelled fishy; since I had a decent pocket pair, I forced an end to the game and forced a decision in the process. I don't claim to be an expert, but everything I've read indicate that you must tell a story, whether you have a hand, are bluffing or are semi-bluffing.

The story must portray strength if you're trying to force a fold or uncertainty if you're trying to extract money with the best hand. That's the point behind continuation and value bets - to force decisions. The more decisions someone has to make, the more likely they are to make a mistake. If you bet 3.5x or 4x before the flop and 5-10x after the flop, you're either saying the flop hit you or your hole cards are still strong. If you bet 3.5x or 4x before the flop and check or make a small feeler bet after the flop, you're either trying to find out where your opponent(s) is, trap someone, see if you can make your draw or stop the bleeding. Similar concepts apply at the turn and river - all of this combines to say "I have a strong hand" or "I'm not sure I have that much ... you should probably call me or re-raise me to find out ... muahahahaha." That story must be credible - you have to make your opponent BELIEVE they're beat before they call ... unless you want them to call. If that story gets confusing at any time, someone might push because they think you're bluffing and catch you with your pants down. Remember, this story needs to be direct and plausible - no trickery here. Think Stephen King's level of directness ... not David Foster Wallace and his penchant for writing what most people would call novels in his footnotes.

Here's a perfect example of a simple portrayal of strength, including a feeler bet:

$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (4845020), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:28:41 ET - 2006/06/22
Seat 2: Em_Em420 (1,280)
Seat 4: puckett101 (1,455)
Em_Em420 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to puckett101 [Jh Kc]
puckett101 raises to 140
Em_Em420 calls 100
*** FLOP *** [2h 2d 3h]
Em_Em420 has 15 seconds left to act
Em_Em420 bets 150
puckett101 raises to 1,315, and is all in
Em_Em420 folds
Uncalled bet of 1,165 returned to puckett101
puckett101 mucks
puckett101 wins the pot (600)

I had nothing but good hole cards before the flop. I bet 3.5x before the flop, representing strength. In position, I was able to re-raise that 3.75x blind bet to all-in - my opponent may have made a small pair (they obviously didn't have a deuce) but it wasn't a pair they felt strongly enough about to call an all-in. They found out where they were at in the hand relatively cheaply - where they were was having to make a decision about the rest of their chips. They felt it wasn't worth the call and they may have been right.

Here's another example from a cash game:

Table Brookdale (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:31:34 ET - 2006/06/21
Seat 1: puckett101 ($4.45)
Seat 2: maxswell ($3.95)
Seat 3: The Card Reader ($4.90)
Seat 4: BurninThousands ($4.55)
Seat 5: kilgore3363 ($3.40)
Seat 6: mdmaxx1 ($4.60)
mdmaxx1 posts the small blind of $0.05
puckett101 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to puckett101 [9c 8c]
maxswell folds
The Card Reader folds
BurninThousands folds
kilgore3363 folds
mdmaxx1 calls $0.05
puckett101 checks
*** FLOP *** [Tc Td 7s]
mdmaxx1 bets $0.10
puckett101 raises to $0.30
mdmaxx1 calls $0.20
*** TURN *** [Tc Td 7s] [As]
mdmaxx1 bets $0.10
puckett101 raises to $0.85
mdmaxx1 has 15 seconds left to act
mdmaxx1 calls $0.75
*** RIVER *** [Tc Td 7s As] [5s]
mdmaxx1 checks
puckett101 bets $2.25
mdmaxx1 has 15 seconds left to act
mdmaxx1 folds
Uncalled bet of $2.25 returned to puckett101
puckett101 mucks
puckett101 wins the pot ($2.25)

In cash games, I like to see flops cheaply - hell, I'll play almost any two cards in a ring game if I can just get to the flop. I seem to be a monster after the flop because it usually hits me hard when I'm holding rags and the strength of my hand is concealed - I limped in, what could I possibly have that's worth betting 8.5x the blind with 10-9-6 on the board? It's obviously not better than the A-9o that the person across the table has.

In the above example, it was pure post-flop aggression and betting to my opponent's vomit factor - you know, that level of betting where sphincters tighten and stomachs turn. I limped, re-raised after the flop, really re-raised him when an ace hit the board and bet 22.5x the blind - which was the size of the pot - at the river. He didn't feel his hand had improved and I took a nice pot with nothing more than a draw that didn't pan out after the flop.

The common factor here is that these bets tell a credible story - they all say, "You're beat, you know you're beat, I know that you know that you're beat, and you know that I know that. I'm going to take so much money out of you that you're going to feel like my personal ATM."

The other common factor? All of these bet series induced folds (which was a damn good thing because there was only one hand in them that I actually was comfortable with). They told credible stories that made people feel like they were cutting their losses and living to play another hand that they might win. They gave that hand up. That can't be estimated enough.

I think all this stuff is elementary, but given what I keep seeing in SNGs and ring games, it may not be.

Just some thoughts from an early morning when I finished up in cash games and couldn't find an SNG ready to go.

Posted by puckett at June 23, 2006 09:45 AM

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